“Now who’s being naive, Kay?”

Donald Trump is making us an offer we may or may not wish to refuse

Once again, with authority:

Trump: Sonny

DeSantis: Michael

NeverTrump: Fredo

I supported Trump in 2020. Happily. His policies worked, and everyone with a functioning brain knew Biden was being used as a stand-in for an Obama third term. The Great Orange Menace should have won in 2020, but Covid gave the left cover to (now permanently) alter our election processes, and a few outliers aside, the GOP — and especially its leadership — never caught up, or, worse still, didn’t want to catch up.

But Trump’s tantrums over the attention DeSantis is getting — and his threats to tell unflattering stories about the guy who just brought in all of Florida, including Miami / Dade — are tiresome, petty, and harmful to the MAGA brand. Especially while DeSantis is dealing with a second hurricane, and Ted Cruz is already stumping for Herschel Walker in the Georgia runoff.

Yes, the corporate media and GOP establishment shadow-puppeteers like Paul Ryan are trying to blame Tuesday’s underwhelming showing on Trump. And yes, they are wooing DeSantis as a potential Trump killer. But the facts are that Trump had a 93% win rate as a midterm kingmaker, with several races still undecided, and obvious missteps like Dr Oz notwithstanding. And don’t think for a second DeSantis doesn’t see this. He recognizes Trump’s value to the movement.

So just because the GOP establishment wants to push DeSantis over Trump doesn’t mean they can control DeSantis. They may think they can, but if anyone governed a state as unapologetically on the cultural right better than DeSantis — despite the media’s hatred of him as a Trump proxy (remember, both the Lincoln Project and the Jonah Goldbergs and Bill Kristols of the world detested DeSantis’ bluster) — show me.

Remember: Sonny died in a boisterous hail of gunfire. And that’s because his enemies learned to use his personality against him. Michael took power and grew the family brand — all while giving them an air of legitimacy. And yet he was the most ruthless of them all.

Trump announcing his intention to run again — if indeed he does on the 15th —may prove to be the death knell of MAGA in 2024. While he’s wildly popular with much of the base, his behavior repels independents and suburban women. And if the midterms taught us anything, it’s that people can be convinced to vote against their own economic interests.

It’s unlikely DeSantis will want to be bloodied up by Trump; Pence is a non-starter. Pompeo? Haley? Youngkin?

Give me a break. Trump will spread them on toast, eat them in a single bite, then wash them down with a tall glass of David French’s sanctimonious tears.

The real Trump problem can only be solved by Trump. And that would take both introspection and a check on his ego — neither of which anyone would suggest are two of his most prominent strengths.

Keep your friends close and you enemies closer — and never discuss the family business in front of someone outside the family.

Michael learned from Vito what Sonny never did: how to triangulate, how to create alliances of benefit. When he takes power, the hit on the establishment — along with the hit on Fredo — will blindside them all.

If it takes place on one of his kids’ baptismal days, the poetic irony will be complete.

But a Michael era can only happen if Sonny catches a lot of lead. And so far this time around, the bullets seem only to be grazing him. At least for now.

Don’t get me wrong: come 2024, if Sonny is the guy, I’ll have his back.

But they’ll be no compound in Reno, and making a move into Vegas will still remain a generation or two away.

UPDATE: another view. (h/t instapundit)